That USA Today Poll?

Posted on 09/08/2008 at 8:20 am by Bob Cesca

Don’t sweat it. It’s a fluke.

But if it doesn’t even out next week, then we should worry.

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  • trustno1

    Okay, 4% points is maybe somewhat out of the margin of error, but not so much that I’m going to stop eating. Nor was Obama’s lead that substantial, ever. I was hoping for a nice 10% lead for Obama so I could stop keeping Tums in business, but that’s not going to happen. Right. So today’s the day I call the local office and sign up toe GOTV. If all the voters registered by the Dems show up, then it should lead to victory (barring October surprise, of course.) Math is on our side IF people vote.

  • HaremScarem

    I’m trying hard not to worry, but I can’t help it. People are buying in to this POW/Palin nonsense. Gahh

  • cminri

    I hate these FN polls!!! What does it mean? People who were for Obama last week watched the RNC…became so enamoured of Sarah Palin that they said to themselves….these guys are for me! I want the pitbull with the lipstick who can read someone else’s words! Wow…

  • http://www.intoxination.net IntoxiNation

    I haven’t even been looking at polls. You can never go by them after the conventions. It takes a couple of weeks for things to level out. Now the polls reflecting debates – those I will watch.

  • trustno1

    Wow, whoopsie, didn’t mean 4%. Too little coffee.

  • FrictionSoul

    Alright people, enough with this fear-mongering over polls!You really need to think these polls through. If they sampled 5,000 in each state and split it evenly between registered Dems and Repubs who have voted in the last 2 elections, then you would have a pretty decent poll with a small margin or error.But if you’re going by land line phone numbers only, and sampling a random number of people totaling 1000 for the entire country, then you’re almost guaranteed to get results that favor McCain because I guarantee you that any landline that has been in place and voted in the last 2 election most certainly does not belong to someone younger than 27 years old.In short, poll methodology is an art, not science. Yes it uses numbers, yes it use complex statistical analysis but if you ever took Statistics 505 – and I have – you will learn that HOW you ask your questions makes all the difference in the world!!I haven’t checked out the poll questions – do they even reveal them? – but I can almost guarantee that NONE of them ask “Who are you going to vote for President?”They canno mention names because the order in which they give the names influences people’s answers. And if the question contains the word “Palin” then you’re going to get skewed results because Palin is a hot topic. Or is she a hottie and some Dems would just koingly answer with Palin just for the heck of it.So, do not medicate yourselves over polls. GOTV!!!!! You have until October 4th to register people!!!

  • http://www.broadwaycarl.blogspot.com Broadway Carl

    I understand that the polls have to level out, but this really kills me:

    The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an “enthusiasm gap” that has dogged the GOP all year.

    McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republicans biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

    An “enthusiasm gap”? Are you fucking kidding me? They can exaggerate, distort the truth, flat out lie and not explain any detailed policy proposals, but as long as you can chant “Drill, baby! Drill!” and “USA!” to raise the fucking “enthusiasm gap” within your party and appeal to the lowest common denominator – the uninformed and ignorant who flip out over a pig¹ in lipstick – you can make what should be an obvious choice, a coin flip.

    ———-

    ¹ – That’s not a mistake. After her display at the RNC, I don’t consider Sarah Palin a “pitbull in lipstick” I consider her a “pig.”

  • natashacrk

    I’m getting an ulcer!

  • CupcakeCult

    I thought I was the only one with an upset stomach over all of this. I am actually trying to distance myself from anything that talks about “how great” McCain/Pig are doing. It’s taking it’s toll on me. I had to turn off the radio this morning.

  • Ari Rutenberg

    Just remember…this is not a national election. It is a state by state, and indeed a district by district process. If you look at the RCP Poll(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html) average McCain is up by 2.4%, but if you check out the electoral vote count(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5), Obama is still up by the same amount he was before both conventions. When that number changes, then we need to worry. But as long as he has the electoral advantage we are safe.