Good News Bad News

Posted on 10/18/2008 at 5:28 pm by Bob Cesca

The bad news first this time. I know that Drudge and Dick Morris have been trying to push a “tightening race” narrative, and now it appears to be happening — at least for now, and only in the national daily trackers. Nate Silver:

John McCain has once again improved his position in the national tracking polls, having gained ground in 4 of the 5 6 trackers that published today (Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP were the exceptions). Our model now perceives that Obama has come somewhat off his peak numbers, which were realized perhaps 5-7 days ago.

The good news is:

…the polls in battleground states have not really tightened at all. Obama gets good numbers today, for instance, in North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida.

Irrespective of the which numbers are showing what, I think the message is clear. Senator Obama is still Senator Obama. And there’s still a good chance that he will remain Senator Obama on November 4.

Aside from continuing to fight the McCain zombies who appear to be getting more bitey by the minute, the message to your friends and family is that the McCain zombies could still win this thing. We can’t take anything for granted. We can’t relax yet. As Senator Obama said the other day, “Don’t underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Don’t underestimate our ability to screw it up.”

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  • http://www.broadwaycarl.blogspot.com Broadway Carl

    While I agree that we shouldn’t take anything for granted, I also think that the huge Obama numbers we’ve seen this past week have been a little overinflated for whatever reason. Even Bill Burton, when questioned on MSNBC, didn’t think that the 11-14 point advantage was realistic and estimated it at about 6 points.

    But we can’t panic either. I sense a little panic in your post, Bob, and while I promise you I am not taking anything for granted, drawing 100,000 in the Shown Me state is showing me something. I think not only is the tide turning, but the tide HAS turned. Rememeber that these polls are usually among likely voters, which means that people under 25 aren’t even counted. That’s millions and millions of votes.

    The other two factors that give me a sense of calm are 1) the Obama campaign is fighting back the ACORN crap with their letter to Mukasey’s office. They’re not sitting idly by while the GOP tries to steal another one. And 2) the SCOTUS decision in Ohio to tell the Republicans to fuck off pulled the ace in the hole out from under those thieving fuckers.

    Obama’s campaign has been one of organization to the point of near perfection and I think they have everything in hand. Just knowing that they aren’t taking anything for granted makes me feel confident. A lot more confident than in 2004.

  • Poleezz

    Carl is on the mark. No one is taking anything for granted. Obama has the best team on the ground and working.

  • Bob_Cesca

    >>But we can’t panic either. I sense a little panic in your post, BobThe only thing that’s making me nervous is complacency. I’m actually a little more comfortable with the tighter numbers than I was with the gargantuan 14 point margin. And besides, you know me — I’m in the “Everybody calm the fuck down! I got this!” camp. Cheers!

  • Teaflax

    Don’t underestimate the willingness and ability of the Republicans to steal the election for the third time running. They can do it and they have done it before. All they need is for the polls to be close enough to fudge the numbers and then outright lie about the rest. I don’t see a scenario where they don’t try it, but I have some minor faith in the ability of the Obama campaign to somehow pull it off anyway.