Pollster Pollgasm

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Florida is now solidly blue — Obama ahead by six.

Obama leads by a point in North Carolina.

Obama leads by four points in Virginia.

Obama leads by four in Ohio.

Obama is only a point behind in West Virginia.

Obama is only a point behind in Missouri.

North Dakota and Indiana are now toss-ups.

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  • dontpanic23

    Would Elvis and Paddy please pass the cigarette around the room? I’m too superstitious to say anything like “woo hoo” but damn, we might just have a chance (knock knock knock).

  • cminri

    I’m still amazed at the number of Red states and how low Obama is polling in some of them. I wonder if anyone has done a comparison of either IQ scores or high school drop out rates in the Red versus Blue states. I think I could guess what the correlation would be.

  • dontpanic23

    That would be an interesting study, cminri. If anyone ever runs across it, please bring it here.

  • http://cousinavi.wordpress.com cousinavi

    COME ON TEXAS!YOU CAN DO IT!

  • FrictionSoul

    No need for a study: the less educated a person is, the more likely they have allowed themselves be to dumbed down by the boob tube and the more likely their belief systems are shaped by lies than by their church. Those willfully ignoramuses tend to vote GOP because they’ve been struck dumb by fear.

  • dontpanic23

    Yeah, Friction, God and O’Reilly have both been known to strike people dumb–though in different ways. God usually only gets caught up in it when grabbed up by organized religion and used to suit whatever fear that particular one wants to push to the polls. O’Reilly only channels to those in the Fox pews. I stay away from both so I don’t know what these people are hearing except what leaks out. And I find both FOX and organized religion pretty skeery.*back under the desk*

  • NotAPollStat

    REMEMBER: McCain throwing out the lie (ACORN) as a smokescreen so they can purge voter records and deny foreclosure victims their votes. Not to mention the scare campaigns going on at college campuses.Dagnabit – they’ll prove those polling numbers were wrong – by hook or CROOK…

  • MatthewN

    Want to talk Poll-gasms?Heat over to fivethirtyeight.com or election-projection.netI’m beginning to believe that we’re going to pull this off, and with a large enough margin that there can’t be any Bush/Gore shrieking for recounts or “McCain actually won but they gave it to Obama” narratives to stain the beginning of Barack’s presidency.

  • dontpanic23

    My son-in-law just stumbled me the fivethirtyeight. It’s making me shred my fingers knocking on wood.

  • http://jennydemilo.blogspot.com JennyDemilo

    i think i just creamed my panties!

  • Pecos Bill

    @jenny-*whew*!

  • dontpanic23

    Jenny now pass the panties around to Pecos with the cigarette.

  • JG

    –just remember, tomorrow night’s debate will be moderated by Bob Schieffer who claims being shot down in a fighter plane qualifies one–he is the folksiest, most BBQey of the bunch. McCain is already hinting he speak speak of Voldemort…I mean Ayers.–The media WILL LOVE THIS, and they are already itching to tighten this race any way they can.Also, the sleaze factor will ramp up as well–I am cautiously optimistic at this point–squeeking by won;t be enough. We must CRUSH them at the polls. A crushing defeat will REPUDIATE the last 8 years and throw Bush’s Burka of Fear on the ash heap of history–

  • http://www.poligot.wordpress.com Kristin Teigen

    Man, how do I top Jenny? sheesh…The one I think is very interesting is Georgia…huge numbers of African Americans who did not vote in the last several elections, and finally, we have a Democratic candidate who has not written off the South. He has the money and the organization to actually put Georgia in play.

  • Tbest609

    I know this doesn’t particularly pertain to this post, but i wanted to put it somewhere. It’s long and many of you have probably already seen this. I’ve had this conversation with my dad (a republican) who owns a small furniture business. Basically, my argument is if everyone in town is making more money they will buy more furniture, therefore you will make more money. (Again sorry for the length of this post):”This weekend,” Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said today, “a plumber concerned that Senator Obama was going to raise his taxes asked him directly about his plan. The response was telling. Senator Obama explained to him that he was going to raise his taxes to quote ‘spread the wealth around.’”Is that what happened?Judge for yourself — here’s the exchange.Outside Toledo, Ohio, on Sunday, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., was approached by plumber Joe Wurzelbacher, a big, bald man with a goatee who asked Obama if he believes in the American dream.”I’m getting ready to buy a company that makes 250 to 280 thousand dollars a year,” Wurzelbacher said. “Your new tax plan is going to tax me more, isn’t it?”Obama said, “First off, you would get a 50% tax credit so you’d get a tax cut for your healthcare costs….. if your revenue is above 250 – then from 250 down, your taxes are going to stay the same. It is true that from 250 up – from 250 – 300 or so, so for that additional amount, you’d go from 36 to 39%, which is what it was under Bill Clinton. And the reason why we’re doing that is because 95% of small businesses make less than 250. So what I want to do is give them a tax cut. I want to give all these folks who are bus drivers, teachers, auto workers who make less, I want to give them a tax cut. And so what we’re doing is, we are saying that folks who make more than 250 that that marginal amount above 250 – they’re gonna be taxed at a 39 instead of a 36% rate.”Responded Wurzelbacher, “the reason I ask you about the American dream, I mean I’ve worked hard. I’m a plumber. I work 10-12 hours a day and I’m buying this company and I’m going to continue working that way. I’m getting taxed more and more while fulfilling the American dream.”"Well,” said Obama, “here’s a way of thinking about it. How long have been a plumber?”Wurzelbacher said 15 years.Obama says, “Over the last 15 years, when you weren’t making 250, you would have been given a tax cut from me, so you’d actually have more money, which means you would have saved more, which means you would have gotten to the point where you could build your small business quicker than under the current tax code. So there are two ways of looking at it – I mean one way of looking at it is, now that you’ve become more successful through hard work – you don’t want to be taxed as much.”“Exactly,” Wurzelbacher said.Obama continued, “But another way of looking at it is 95% of folks who are making less than 250, they may be working hard too, but they’re being taxed at a higher rate than they would be under mine. So what I’m doing is, put yourself back 10 years ago when you were only making whatever, 60 or 70. Under my tax plan you would be keeping more of your paycheck, you’d be paying lower taxes, which means you would have saved…Now look, nobody likes high taxes.”"No,” said Wurzelbacher.”Of course not,” said Obama. “But what’s happened is that we end up – we’ve cut taxes a lot for folks like me who make a lot more than 250. We haven’t given a break to folks who make less, and as a consequence, the average wage and income for ordinary folks, the vast majority of Americans, has actually gone down over the last eight years. So all I want to do is – I’ve got a tax cut. The only thing that changes, is I’m gonna cut taxes a little bit more for the folks who are most in need and for the 5% of the folks who are doing very well – even though they’ve been working hard and I appreciate that – I just want to make sure they’re paying a little bit more in order to pay for those other tax cuts. Now, I respect the disagreement. I just want you to be clear – it’s not that I want to punish your success – I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you – that they’ve got a chance at success too.”Wurzelbacher said it seemed as though Obama might support a flat tax.Obama says, “you know, I would be open to it except here’s the problem with a flat tax is that if you actually put a flat tax together, in order for it to work and replace all the revenue that we’ve got, you’d probably end up having to make it like about a 40% sales tax. I mean that’s the value added, making it up. Now some people say 23 or 25, but in truth when you add up all the revenue that would need to be raised, you’d have to slap on a whole bunch of sales taxes on. And I do believe for folks like me who have worked hard, but frankly also been lucky, I don’t mind paying just a little bit more than the waitress that I just met over there who’s things are slow and she can barely make the rent.”Obama said, “My attitude is that if the economy’s good for folks from the bottom up, it’s gonna be good for everybody. If you’ve got a plumbing business, you’re gonna be better off if you’re gonna be better off if you’ve got a whole bunch of customers who can afford to hire you, and right now everybody’s so pinched that business is bad for everybody and I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”That’s the key moment McCain is jumping out…”when you spread the wealth around it’s good for everybody.”"But listen,” Obama said, shaking Wurzelbacher’s hand, “I respect what you do and I respect your question, and even if I don’t get your vote, I’m still gonna be working hard on your behalf, because small businesses are what creates jobs in this country and I want to encourage it.””Guys I gotta get out of here and go prepare for the debate,” Obama said, “but that was pretty good practice right there.”

  • dontpanic23

    @Kristin – I’m here in NC and it’s the same (but not quite as southern–take that in every way possible but only by a few degrees). A lot of our shift is probably imported. My little town has become a haven for retirees from colder locales who loved the Andy Griffith show. Yes, I live in the real Mayberry and I’m not kidding. He went to the same high school I did. Not at the same time.And Pecos already tried to top Jenny but was too late.

  • solrac2002

    Off the subject at hand..I’m 38 yo and I literally grew up on rap since the day it started. From the days of Public Enemy and BDP..Songs that made you angry and to think most of it politically, now when I hear Soilder Boy on the radio I want to puke, his music has no substance at all. But I read something from a southern rapper from Texas, older cat I’d say around 35, named Bun B apparently he gets it:”I think it’s terrible man. The government is getting ready to print up $700 Billion dollars of worthless paper. It has no value, it has no commodity to back it. I mean there’s no gas, there’s no oil behind this money;they just printing paper. The dollar is already devalued as it is. All they doing is making it harder to be an American right now. They really need to get their mind right. I’m very sad that they passed that.”

  • http://cousinavi.wordpress.com cousinavi

    Here be wisdom for those who have an ear to hear.This election is no longer about issues.This election is about controlling who gets to vote.ACORN is the thing edge of the wedge that through ginned up argument that DEMOCRACY ITSELF is threatened by VOTER FRAUD, we get three (more, but primarily three) effects on November 4:Restrict the voting process, exercise tighter control over the voting lists and argue for increased scrutiny at the polls.The result: Like Forida in 2000, disenfranshised voters in swing states.I know what the EV polls say. We’re talking about 4-6-8% in ALOT of places. Between racists and anti-abortionists…and the people the Rethugs can PREVENT FROM COUNTING, this election is NOT OVER.By Any Means Necessary.Do you expect them to roll over?Do you?http://cousinavi.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/palin-cites-acorn-dems-trying-to-steal-election/

  • http://cousinavi.wordpress.com cousinavi

    The government is getting ready to print up $700 Billion dollars of worthless paper. It has no value, it has no commodity to back it.Posted by: solrac2002Slate.com reposted a piece by Krugman – you know, the guy just won the NOBEL PRIZE for Economics – about how printing more money is sometimes just exactly what an economy needs.Check it out. In a situation where everyone wants more, and none is flowing around, it only makes sense to put more into circulation.Yeah…it’s a simplification…but just for fun, simplify the alternative. See what happens.

  • Pecos Bill

    @panic-LOL!Now that I’ve ‘recovered’…So, you’re in western NC. I’m in Cary.But, I digress…Here in the ‘civilized’ portion of NC (hehe!), I get the sense that the race here will be a close one, but a solid victory for Obama. I’ve heard how ‘red’ it is the closer you move eastward, and the into the mountains.True?

  • http://cousinavi.wordpress.com cousinavi

    Mountains are always red, Bill.Show me elevation, I’ll show you someone who thinks Palin is the bee’s knees.

  • ceu

    electoral-vote.com has Obama with 357 EVs and the Senate Dems at 59. :)

  • MatthewN

    ceu – That would mean something if Dems would ever vote as a block, but they don’t.I think we could get 65 Senate seats, and still end up having trouble getting Democratic legislation passed.Republicans are much better at voting in lock-step than we are.

  • http://www.poligot.wordpress.com Kristin Teigen

    Don’t Panic,Cool! My family and I are coming to NC starting on Saturday — to Hendersonville. We’ll be there for more than a week and are looking to do some work that makes a difference. Any suggestions?

  • Pecos Bill

    @Cousin-true.I know the human brain metabolizes glucose to feed itself.Could it be that the higher mountain elevations (less oxygen), is directly proporional to the stupidity of the Hatfields and Mckoys which reside???

  • jane

    Pecos! Raleigh in the hizzy.Kristin- have fun in NC. Asheville’s just up the road “a piece” from H-ville, very crunchy for a mountain town. Hell, H-ville’s prolly a suburb of Asheville these days.

  • WalkThisJai

    When I see these latest maps I close my eyes so I don’t jinx it. McLAME has plenty of time to catch up…I’m a red sox fan, we just don’t talk about these things! Not until it’s over, then maybe we can have parades.

  • Pecos Bill

    Jane’s in da hayooooooooouse!Enjoy the session.I’m spent!Somethin’ to do with panties and therefore and such…

  • http://cousinavi.wordpress.com cousinavi

    Could it be that the higher mountain elevations (less oxygen), is directly proporional to the stupidity of the Hatfields and Mckoys which reside???

  • dontpanic23

    Pecos! In Cary, nice place. I’m in the foothills NW of you–in fact you might know exactly where I am if you took my Mayberry description literally. We just had the stupid festival. Yes it’s MUCH more looney up this way. I’m hiding in an undisclosed cave clutching my Obama sign, shirts and buttons. And MoveOn bumperstickers. Help me.And K, if Hendersonville is like here it is a beautiful place but a wasteland of things-to-do unless you like scenery. We’re pretty good on that. You will be to the SW of me by a couple of hours or less. (Sounds like I’m playing pin the spot on DP’s map). Small mountain towns do sometimes have very interesting used book stores, one of my passions, but most of–all of–the good stuff came from tourists I’d imagine.And JANE, you’re back!

  • dontpanic23

    Hey, cut the hillbilly remarks! I is one.

  • http://cousinavi.wordpress.com cousinavi

    Who said Hillbilly? I said MUDWHUMP.Not my fault you know what a mudwhump is.Talk about a giveaway. What say, Cletus?

  • dontpanic23

    Cawt me a mudwhump down at the crick jest yestidy, Elmer.Ok, I give. What’s a MUDWHUMP? It’s this thin air up here. Thin red air. Makes us stoopid. You taught me how to do this so enlighten me further, oh Doctor Cox-looking one.

  • Pecos Bill

    @PanicI got your back! You gonna vote EARLY??? Also, are they startin’ to ‘tap’ your emails yet???

  • http://UfpbARTWL74YJCjH0bfS Readytohurl

    Man, I do hope Florida has turned “true blue” … although you’d never know it here in Bubbaville, land of Ford 4x4s and McBush-Paleolithic signs everywhere. Cretin Central. Poopyhead Paradise. Asshats!

  • dontpanic23

    @PecosGonna vote early. Gotta bribe–er, offer to take my idiot son out for food and do a drive-by of the early polling place. It’s a long walk home. He’ll vote. He’s for Obama but politically lazy. He doesn’t do standing in lines. Little shit. He’ll sit in a tree and watch for a deer to blast into oblivion for hours but will not stand in a line.I’ve figured “they’ve” been tapping my emails just like everyone else’s for almost as long as email has been around, and certainly since Cheney. When my mom and I joke around about something that might be too subtle for the folks listening in, we both put disclaimers at the bottom labeling it *FOR THOSE PEEPING: JOKE*