The Weirdness of the American Voter

Yglesias encapsultates one of the things I worry about the most (at least in terms of politics):

I think it’s very possible that Democrats could “gain so much power” that they implement at least some of their “crazy plans” and that the people, rather than revolting, will just turn their attention to other issues. For example, many Americans feels anxiety about their health insurance status. And the majority of these people vote for Democrats. But if Democrats deliver a health care reform plan that assuages those fears, those voters may start voting more on their hatred of abortion or love of torture and bring Republicans back into power.

It doesn’t always work this way, but it’s a very real possibility. There are other ingredients at play, of course, that could shake up a scenario like this. But unless we’re experiencing a major party shift here — the first since the Whigs vanished — the Republicans will be back. It’s more a matter of how, how soon, to what extent and which branch.

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  • http://tarackian.deviantart.com J M Ashby

    uhh I dont understand this logic…Democratic voters will suddenly turn republican on certain issues because they got their way on a few others?This does not compute.And the Whigs are deffinantly on their way out of town. Only this time instead of Whigs its old white guys with Color-for-men in their hair talking about cutting taxes and how torture is mm mm good. I think its more likely we could end up with 2 democratic parties instead of 1 demo and 1 repub. A left and a center. It may still be called “republican” but thats what I see happening. The far right crazy is going to be marginalized by its own ineffectiveness.

  • ElMystico

    Well, future republicans can say anything they want, but if we actually get universal healthcare, then good luck to anyone trying to get rid of it.I think future republicans… I’m sorry, FutureRepublicans™ will not look anything like current ones. Their ‘we’re the only ones that love America’ machine is apparently out of ground up towel heads to burn for power, & the young people are no longer afraid of the gay. It’s hard to see us ever returning to Bush-level douche operations.Sorry, DoucheOperations™

  • http://myfriendscallmenikkos.blogspot.com/ nikkos

    Bob, c’mon, you’re smarter than this…if you follow Yglesias’ “logic” then Obama would be best served by NOT doing the things he was elected to do…and this is somehow a good thing, leading to further Democratic dominance? This is a good example of why I stopped reading Matt Yglesias.

  • chauncey1186

    This has to be a joke, right? I mean, come on…talk about classic Democratic handwringing at it’s finest! “Oh no, we can’t be too effective because then voters will suddenly remember they are reeeeally ‘closet’ Republicans”.erm….does the term “mountain out of a molehill’ ring a bell? We are better (and smarter) than this!

  • http://www.bobcesca.com Bob Cesca

    nikkos wrote:>>>Bob, c’mon, you’re smarter than this…if you follow Yglesias’ “logic” then Obama would be best served by NOT doing the things he was elected to do…That’s the problem with politics! If you solve problems, what issues do you campaign on?I’m not saying this is right — I’m saying that it’s sometimes true.I don’t make the rules, nikkos.

  • http://myfriendscallmenikkos.blogspot.com/ nikkos

    Wow, that’s the first time I’ve told a blogger “you’re smarter than this” and they DISAGREED with me…maybe there’s more to your initial point than I thought, Bob.

  • Ady

    I tend to think that you’d campaign on your record and accomplishments. And I doubt there will ever be a shortage of problems to solve in this country.

  • http://tarackian.deviantart.com J M Ashby

    There will never be a shortage of issues to campaign on.Hell even when you have REAL issues to campaign on, the media and your opponent will makeup some issues that aren’t real and it will be treated seriously.And there are things that will be nearly or more important in the not too distant future than healthcare and energy…Net Neutrality, Net Privacy, Access to the Net, Subsidizing the Net, Bioengineering, Gene manipulation, Nanotech, the boundaries of domestic security. I could go on…People think the hot button issues of the internet and its future have been discussed already? Its barely even begun. Blogs are only the beginning. In the not too distant future Cyberspace will be open to basically anyone on the planet and it will be so vast and infinite that supercomputers will have to monitor it. People who previously did not have a voice in the world will have a voice.

  • gypsy

    i agree with ady and ashby (if i was/were? using my real name we could call ourselves “the trio of agreeing a’s”…hehe) we will never solve all the problems with a constant evolving people, nation, environment, WORLD! (pinky finger to lip) but how kickass would it be to campaign on “what next bitches?!”

  • lib4

    I dont think so BobAfter being burned in 2000 and 2004 with the election of GWB I think alot of voters now realize that ELECTIONS DO MATTER.There is a difference between the parties as it relates to kitchen table issues as well as foriegn policy issues (See Iraq).With the economic morass making such a huge impression and the prolonged engagement in Iraq it will be a long long long time before people trust Repubs on economic and foriegn policy issues. Plus the Republicans are doing themselves no favors with their daily descent into WACKOLAND by oepnly advocating seccession, focusing on teleprompters and hand shakes.

  • http://www.windonwater.net QueenTiye

    Actually – I think Bob is right, and I think people are missing the point here.Obama ran on 4 main themes: 1. Health Care, 2. Green Jobs, 3. A steady hand on the economy, and 4. course correction on Iraq & Afghanistan.Despite these big ticket items, the current make up of the electorate is 38% independent, 34 or 36% Democratic, and 21% republican. That tells me that there’s a chunk of people who care very much about one or more of those 4 big ticket itmes but are otherwise conservative (there’s also a big chunk that are liberal, but we’re not talking about that chunk right now. ;) )Looked at another way – folks like Medicare – it’s one of the more popular social safety net programs out there. AND, before it was enacted, conservatives likely fought it tooth and nail. Now that we have it, they aren’t fighting it, but they still exist as conservatives….In FACT, one of the main reasons conservatives are terrified of Obama and the Democratic supermajority is exactly this point – that once certain social programs are enacted, people will like it and want to keep it. Yes, they’ll go back to wanting to fight the spread of big government, but they won’t want to shrink popular government programs. So republicans are obstructionist specifically to avoid expansion of programs that people will LIKE and therefore never want to give up. The coming “European Socialism” boogeyman is one that they already know people are going to like.QT

  • http://tarackian.deviantart.com J M Ashby

    So you’re saying running on success is not an option?Bush ran on the success of “keeping people safe” and the funny thing is he basically completely failed at not only that but everything else too.I still don’t see the logic here. There will never be a shortage of issues to campaign on.

  • http://www.windonwater.net QueenTiye

    Maybe I misread (I didn’t read very deeply) – but I don’t think that Obama will have trouble running on his own record of success if he succeeds in these 4 years. I think the swingback wouldn’t happen until we were trying to elect someone who wasn’t Obama.QT

  • http://www.bobcesca.com Bob Cesca

    Think about it like this. Imagine if Social Security, as a campaign issue, was entirely off the table in districts composed of mostly senior citizens who vote strictly on the Social Security issue. Take it off the table as an issue and they’ll stay home or vote on some other issue which could skew the results.Again, I’m not saying that Obama shouldn’t accomplish big things. I’m simply going through ways in which he could lose or the Republicans could regain control of either the White House or Congress. Don’t shoot the messenger. This is how politics works, unfortunately.

  • shaddomagg

    If the scenario you describe plays out, then you Americans will get what you deserve. Frankly, I don’t think this is too far off the mark. After all, you had George W for 8 years, and are still arguing whether or not what he did was illegal or not. Frankly, nothing about US politics surprises me anymore. Shocks me? Yes…but doesn’t surprise me…

  • http://www.osborneink.com Matt Osborne

    Bob: any chance we could convince the GOP to vote for universal health care on this basis?