The Iranian ‘Green Revolution’

Nico Pitney is doing liveblog updates on HuffPo. He reports that Twitter is the only social network still working there and that this was sent: “Dear Iranian People, Mousavi has not left you alone, he has been put under house arrest by Ministry of Intelligence.”This is a really not good situation – reminiscent is the demonstrations/riots of the late 70′s, when the Islamic revolution occurred and Ayatollah Khomeini and the cleric council came to power. Scary shit.

Bob….the connections you made are right on! Yes to all you suggested.-Terri

I just asked in the PTT if anyone thought this will turn into another revolution. I cannot believe they placed all the opposition candidates under house arrest, per Sullivan.I don’t remember much of the one in 79. I am seeing others compare this to then.Thanks for the info ceu, I have been looking for the most current info.

I have some familiarity with Ukraine, and this situation does remind me of the Orange Revolution. A critical factor there was that, when push came to shove, the regime did not order the military to open fire on the vast crowds in Kiev.The ayatollahs, by contrast, have not hesitated to use deadly force to crush demonstrations before. How loyal the military still is to them, if it comes to that, is another question.News reports indicate large-scale violence in Tehran — the people are angry about the stolen election, and Mousavi is encouraging resistance (according to a statement on his website). There’s no way of knowing how it will end.

Kevin Drum at Mother Jones has an interesting, if very tentative, analysis of the election. He suggests the powers-that-be in Iran so obviously manipulated this election so they’d have an excuse to crack down on dissidents.Maybe, maybe not. If so, they’re playing a dangerous game. The recent track record for crushing popular dissent isn’t very good. On the other hand, the apparatus for controlling the population is pretty efficient in Iran.And veralynn: I do remember the ’79 revolution. It was all about getting the Shah out of power. Khomeini swept in after the heavy lifting was done and claimed power. The parallels are few and tenuous, at best.

I have been reading that some are calling it a military coup. Let me go find the link.

Military coup?

You gotta love Democracy in the Middle East, huh?

Khamenei is under pressure from fellow clerics now. If the clergy splits, Iran WILL be in rebellion without a solid religious backing for either side.

It’s tempting to suggest that the US come out foursquare in support of Ahmadinejad, just to throw a spanner in the works, but ideas like that never seem to end well.Seriously, though, it seems to me that the best thing the rest of the world (i.e., every country that’s not Iran) can do is simply shut up and wait to see what happens. The Iranians are, unsurprisingly, a bit tetchy about outsiders meddling in their affairs. Let them work it out for themselves and respond appropriately when the dust has settled.Bets on the first US politician to slosh gasoline on the fire?

Alopecia – the violent protests in the streets doremind me of those in the 70′s. The Shah’s police force was not hesitant to shoot at the demonstrators. One thing about that region is that the people aren’t hesitant to take to the streets to make their opinions heard. They may not always be successful, but they do it nonetheless.

Apparently they had mobile voting stations and these mobile stations are suppose to go to hospitals and libraries for people to vote but instead they were all sent to military bases and police stations for garunteed right-wing votes. And then all votes were counted by just 3 people in the interior ministers office.Pretty shady if you ask me. And how do a weeks worth of polls saying Mousavi may have the lead change from that to nearly 70/30 split.

Per Josh Marshall at TPM:I had seen unconfirmed reports that former Iranian President Rafsanjani had resigned from the Expediency Discernment Council but not the Assembly of Experts. But al Arabiya says he’s actually resigned from both, as a protest to the election …

Moreover, in a protest against election results Iran’s Hashemi Rafsanjani resigned from his posts as the chairman of the Assembly of Experts and as head of the Expediency Discernment Council, the two most influential institutions in the country.

Iranian authorities have also reportedly asked foreign reporters to leave the country — always a good sign.

“10:05 PM ET — Twitter goes dark? I noted earlier that Twitter was the only major social network still operating in Iran. Now something has changed. All of the Iran-based Twitter users I’ve been reading haven’t posted for at least 30 minutes or so. The reasons are unclear. Some on Twitter are claiming there is a complete electricity shut-down in Tehran. One Iran-based Twitter user, @tehranelection, last posted an hour ago: “I have to shut down for a bit, the police are looking for satellites.” Will update as soon as I hear more.”

again from TPM, Iran’s Political Coup* The Mousavi campaign was informed officially that they had won the election, which perhaps served to temporarily lull them into complacency* But then the Ministry of Interior announced a landslide victory for AhmadinejadIt’s a timeline of events in the last 48 hours. Good piece.

that is from the guy from ceu’s link above. I can’t seem to get this posting thing down tonight

ceu: You’re right, of course. The Shah’s police were brutal (deliberate understatement) in trying to shut down the opposition. My point was that the overwhelming majority of Iranians wanted the Shah gone; it’s unclear how many truly wanted Khomeini to take power. The current election seems to be less about overthrowing the existing power structure than making an incremental change, or maybe a statement of discontent: there is some debate over whether how many votes were pro-Mousavi and how many were anti-Ahmadinejad.

agreed, alopecia. My original comment that it was reminiscent of what occurred in the ’70′s was about the visuals of the people in the streets rather than the motives behind them being there. It also reminded me of the student protests in Paris in the ’60′s. We don’t see that here anymore. We get small groups standing on curbs with misspelled signs and some in foolish costumes. ‘course, not as many people get shot or trampled….

and from Andrew Sullivan, a translation of the formal statements from the challenging candidates, neither of whom will concede the election.

Holy shit!YouTube links:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcHT8-ps64wtakes about 15 seconds before video gets going and it lightens up after a minute or so.The crowds:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nifgnonH-BU&feature=related

>>>Bets on the first US politician to slosh gasoline on the fire?Hmmm…that’s a great question alopecia. I suppose it depends on the definition of a politician. If Newt still counts, I’ll place a large wager on him. Otherwise, gotta go with Boehner.

I vote for John Bolton.

Well Elliot Abrams did make a statement according to the article you referenced at TPM..

BBC Reports

Lots of snippets – BBC reporter arrested, working on translation of video statement from Mousavi, etc.from twitter:solidadrocksRT @petequily +1: Iran regime tries to shut down Twitter,but API structure allows for endless workarounds APIs = Freedom (via @fuckfascism)Lots of snippets – BBC reporter arrested, working on translation of video statement from Mousavi, etc.claraalexandra RT @IranElection09: #iranelection gun shots and loud booms heard from Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, sounds of screamingRT @elham17: Iran’s own election monitoring commission has declared the result invalid