So You’re The President…

Posted on 10/26/2009 at 2:25 pm by Bob Cesca

Within the next hour or so, it looks like Harry Reid is going to announce a healthcare reform bill with a public insurance plan included.

This is, of course, fantastic news.

But going back to my ‘Denial’ post from earlier, let’s do a bit of role playing here to further illustrate my point that the recent trigger news isn’t about the president deliberately trying to undermine or kill the public option.

Let’s say it becomes clear that Nelson and Lincoln are going to filibuster healthcare reform with the Republicans — for real — by voting against cloture. This means 58 votes and a successful Republican filibuster.

Meanwhile, it’s clear that reconciliation would butcher the reform bill — perhaps even stripping the public option from the bill, along with other crucial aspects of reform. At the same time, Olympia Snowe and both Nelson and Lincoln suggest they would vote for cloture on a bill with a triggered public option.

You’re the president. What do you do?

1. Embark on a serious arm-twisting campaign to win over Nelson and Lincoln on the opt-out public option, and hope they change their mind in time for a cloture vote?

2. Roll the dice with reconciliation which even experts like Lawrence O’Donnell suggest would turn a reform bill into a pile of shit?

3. Accept the trigger and move the bill forward, then spend the extra time twisting arms for a stronger public option in conference committee — maybe even winning over Nelson and Lincoln in the process?

In reality, it sounds like Reid has a path to 60 votes for the opt-out public option. Excellent. But this exercise is meant to explain why, if at all, the White House may have been considering the trigger at this stage. As Jon Cohn wrote today, President Obama clearly wants a strong public option, but the Snowe/trigger was Plan-B for getting the bill out of the Senate and into conference committee and for that reason, they were willing to keep it on the table.

(Also, keep in mind the underlying fact that the House Progressive Caucus has pledged to vote against anything with a trigger, so a trigger would doom the final bill in the House. Just a reminder.)

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  • eljefejeff

    Obama and Reid should know by now whether or not Nelson, Lincoln, etc are on board with the opt-out, and if the House can pass a simple majority. If so, then there is no reason to negotiate on that matter anymore, is there?

  • http://www.bobcesca.com Bob_Cesca

    @eljefe:If Reid has the votes, the whole thing is moot. But the trigger resurfaced (as far as we know) when the votes weren’t there.

  • shootingczar

    Looks like Reid is pushing forward with the opt-out idea. Which makes me wonder if my barely Republican controlled legislature or teabagger governor, Rick Perry, opt-out of this plan will the individual mandate still apply to me?I am very worried about this being a case of the Democratic leadership selling out those in desperate need just because they live in a red state. If we take the approach that some have suggested of looking at this as a civil rights issue then this would be like passing the Civil Rights Act of 1964 but letting the South opt-out.

  • J

    Have people forgotten that there was no public option in the Senate bill to begin with? This whole debate is acting as though everyone in the Senate wants the public option and Obama is taking it away because he’s bored. There wasn’t one in committee and the bill STILL barely passed. Having a bunch of backup plans sounds good to me. If we don’t want a trigger, then we’d better get our senators on board–the President is going to sign the bill presented to him. It’s up to Congress what that bill says.

  • Bull Schmitt

    J: There was no public option in the Senate Finance Committee bill, but there was one in the HELP Committee bill. Reid’s announcement today was what will be in the merged version of the Senate bill.If this can pass out of the Senate, it then again gets merged with whatever Nancy Pelosi gets through the House, and then for final vote.I was personally expecting the trigger in this ’round’ of merges, as that would theoretically get Co-President Snowe on the record as voting for a reform bill on the Senate floor. Before final passage, the House-Senate merged bill would squeeze out the trigger for an actual form of the public option – meaning Snowe (and Nelson, Lincoln, Landrieu et al) would then have to go against their prior floor vote.As I understand things now, Reid can still go back to the trigger if he can’t get opt-out past cloture, so I’m not sure the overall strategy changes – with the exception that if he can ram the opt-out through on the first Senate vote, that should allow for an even better bill once it’s merged with the House version.A bit of a risk if he has to go back to the trigger, but big reward if this move pays off, IMO.

  • J

    @Bull: Yes, true. Poor HELP committee. Always being ignored, left in the shadows of its more obnoxious sibling.