The Insurance Stock Myth

Yeah but you can’t hide the fact that insurance stocks have soared since the Senate started taking up the bill. Here’s Aetna, Cigna and United over the past 3 months.What would be a good project is to overlay dates of significant developments in the HCR battle on top of that chart and see if there really is a collation between them.

So we’re saying that 3 or 4 senators are holding the American economy in their hands due to their hcr vote.wow. Come ON. I mean, what the hell???

Jamie, ALL stocks have risen in the last 3 months. There’s been a rally.

If I heard right, Howard Dean said the same thing on Meet the Press this morning.

It’s pretty clear to anyone with functioning eyes that accompany a brain that the insurance stocks jumped dramatically after Rahm and Lieberman effectively killed the Medicare buy-in.I would guess that’s hard to see through the pom-poms, Bob.

There are ALWAYS multiple factors in stocks going up or down. Two reasons for United’s stocks being up right now is the acquisition of two new companies — one of which is international.Take a look at their 3-year performance and you’ll see that their stocks now are NOWHERE near what they were in 2007:http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/charts/charts.asp?symbol=UNH:USCigna's 3-year performance looks similar to United’s:http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/charts/charts.asp?symbol=CI:USIf you look at the last three years, the two companies are hurting. If you look at a smaller segment of performance, you can see anything. If you look at the 6 months around March, then of course they look like they’re kicking ass right now. That’s the problem with looking at something this complex through a microscopic lens. And that is part of the Dems’ problem right now — the inability to see bigger picture.Although politics play a role in stocks, so do many other things. Quarterly reports and next quarter projections, acquisitions, lawsuit settlements, layoffs, profit/losses, new CEOs, new VPs, international expansion, repurchasing, dividends, etc.No one factor plays a role.I think it’s far more significant that the insurance companies quieted dramatically when the Dems started eating themselves and trying to kill the bill on their behalf.Yes, the mandates are a great boost for the insurance companies. But the penalties won’t kick in for FOUR years and have a lot of exceptions. And the bill also means that insurance companies will have to cover sicker people but they will be limited on how much they charge them. If anything, the only politics that have given them a boost lately is the potential death of the bill which means all restrictions on how they do business that are written into this bill could go away.The death of this bill would be FAR BETTER news to the insurance companies than its passage.Jennifer

@matt – All stocks but the insurance companies. They took a big dive back in September when the summer recess was over and the House started debating HCR and pretty much stayed down until the House passed it’s Bill the first week in November:ChartThe biggest increase in December came after the public option was dropped. I just did a quick chart here. One thing about those dates. I put them in when the news actually happened, and almost every story broke in the evening so the real effects won’t be seen until the next day.In all honesty, an argument can be made either way (it’s good for them, it’s bad for them). I think this week will be the big tell of what the stock holders think.

Scarborough is an ass. Of course he latches on to this but, I’m still pissed because earlier in the week they had that stupid NBC/WSJ poll claiming that the teabagger party is more popular than the Democratic and Republican party. I thought it was bullshit and as soon as Rachel Maddow’s show came on that night she had the internals. 75% of the people who viewed the teabagger movement more favorably also admitted to getting their news from fox. Even that sniveling douchebag Chuck Tood never mentioned it. The people who viewed the teabaggers unfavorably got their news from CNN and MSNBC. Something Jethro never bothered to reveal to his viewers each time they referenced that poll again and again. This is why we know he’s full of shit.

Jamie, also in November, Aetna announced more layoffs & the plan to drop coverage for 600K people.Not saying that the rise & fall of stocks aren’t related to what’s happening in the Senate – they definitely are – but there are other factors, too. (In my stint as a stay-at-home mother, I watched CNBC a lot & noticed that stocks almost always went up when layoffs were announced. It’s rather obscene, really)

It’s also why stupid ass teabaggers and the conservatives continue to over estimate their numbers. They really believe that a majority of the people in this country are with them when, clearly they’re not.

I just popped over to the huffington post and had to return. Senator Russ Feingold is blaming Obama for the loss of the public option. While I too think the president is responsible, I’m curious as to what Russ thinks about Joe, and Ben and the rest of his dick faced colleagues? I’d also have a lot more respect for Feingold if he hadn’t held those fucking stupid CZAR hearing a few weeks ago. When you pander to the impotent other side without checking your facts first, you’re not going to be looked at as someone who fought hard either. Where were Feingold’s demands? Too little, too late Russ. Fuck you!

Most offensive is the sub headline quoting Feingold:”Feingold Pledges To Continue Battle To Include Public Option In Final Bill.”I wasn’t aware that he was fighting at all let alone, pledging. As I said, where were his demands and what did he do when they weren’t met? Obama spoke up for the public option until it became clear that some of their own colleagues would not go along. Instead of allowing them to sour on it, Obama should have publically trashed them for not going along with what he ran on, what the people clearly want as seen through every poll. He should have them told the public that if it didn’t pass with the public option, they’d be able to judge those responsible at the polls. As for Feingold, he could have been doing everything I just stated that the president should have been doing. If you’re a Senator in that body you don’t wait until the fight is lost to make noise and take your stand. He could have said all the shit he’s saying now when it counted. Way to go out on a limb there Russ!

@ceu – that’s why I compared put in 3 different companies into the comparison. You need to look at the industry as a whole instead of individual companies to get an overview of what is happening. Sure there are always some trickle down effects when something good/bad happens to one company, but those aren’t seen in the other companies anywhere near as much, and sometimes can cause adverse effects.But when you look and see that all 3 of those companies saw a 5% average increase in stock prices when the P.O. was dropped, then you can pretty much point to that as the reason, unless there was some other earth shattering news in the industry I missed that day. Hell there could be- this whole HCR thing has played a toll on my brain.

As you can see from my Sarah Palin word salad, I’m pissed! I also read that asshole Conrad is warning the House not to make changes or he won’t vote. Fuck these people. Take a head count of who you can get and pass it anyway. What are they going to do about it? Sue? Where would they take their case? The Supreme Court has no control over the Senate’s rules. They can change them by a majority vote. Fuck the rest of them!

@Jamie: Good points, but I was really only specifying that Friday’s market gains in that sector had nothing to do with getting the 60th vote. I also think it’s iffy to gauge legislation based on market reaction — a little too close to the FNC practice of “watching the Dow” during a presidential speech.However, I agree that the health insurance cartel probably loves the mandates. Makes me ill.

First of all, how gloriously galling it must have been for Doucheborough to have to sit there next to some guy from the netroots that he knows, knows, is far more informed on the subject than he is. He’s Joe Fucking Scarborough!Second, Joe Scarborough has made a television career out of tossing off secondhand anecdotal whatnot as if it was the received wisdom of the Founding Fathers (who knew Thor quite well). He’s Sarah Palin with better grammar. I don’t think he knows any more than health care reform than I do, and I don’t know that much, and he sat there and tried to pass off something he probably made up in the car on the way to the studio as astute political commentary. Does anyone really think he was monitoring the financial health of various insurance companies all summer long and concluded his analysis of their Wall Street peaks and valleys and now, broadcasting “live” from David Gregory’s Pit of Kartoon, is going to hold forth on just why this bill is bad based on his thorough analysis of blah blah blah blah.Shit. Now I’m all worked up.

@bob – yeah and what you said about some serious investigation is in order. If what Joe is saying is true (haha yeah right!) then he better call the SEC and give them what info he has because we have a massive insider trading scam going on. You would think a “lawyer” you know that too.

You’re right, Jamie…people are betting that they’re gonna make money from the insurance stocks.Wondering if any of those companies have made any stock repurchases? (I’m too tired to look it up)In the meantime, the CT insurance commissioner has approved UnitedHealth’s merger with Health Net (maybe just here in CT) and the CT Attorney General has announced an investigation into it on state anti-trust grounds.

So we trust the stock market now?