Polling and the Popularity of Healthcare

Posted on 03/10/2010 at 7:48 pm by Bob Cesca

Steve Benen posted this chart today:

hcrtrend.jpg

Yes, reform is gain in popularity. And no, it really doesn’t matter. What matters, I think, in the long run are the numbers at the far lefthand side of the chart showing overwhelming support for reform.

Here’s why.

Healthcare reform has been relentlessly demonized for an entire year. I’m actually shocked that it’s not more unpopular than it is, all things considered.

Secondly, people don’t like watching laws get made. It’s messy and confusing. Actually, people don’t like governing in general for the same reason. I’ve always believed that if an independent third party — or even the tea party — were to be forced to legislate, it would be about as popular as the current parties.

Third, there isn’t a specific final bill for anyone to ballyhoo. Just abstract principles — some of which are in bill form.

But before the process began, healthcare reform was hugely popular. I suspect that once the bill and the sidecar are passed, and people learn about what’s really in there, we’ll see the numbers move back into that February, 2009 range.

This entry was posted in Healthcare and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.
  • jane

    I never understood why we didn’t capitalize on that a year ago. Instead the narrative (“HCR is unpopular”) drove actual polls. But perhaps we’re at that point, finally, where people are starting to call bullshit.

  • LAH

    The President was in my hometown of St. Louis today. I had to work, so I missed the hoopla – but was able to catch it live on television just as I got home. All the way through I kept thinking the same thing as you, Jane.I also kept thinking how President Obama is doing congresses job for them. Jeez, does he have to do EVERYONE’S job?BTW, the wingnuts here in town (and there are many) are lighting up the internet tonight. More than usual.

  • LAH

    And I should add, for the first time since last spring, sane people are giving the wingnuts here in St. Louis a run for their money.

  • Bull Schmitt

    And it’s almost even (the Pollster average) if you take out the Rasmussen effect.Rasmussen is extremely prolific – they currently put out about half the polls available, now that we are out of campaign mode.Rasmussen has a decided pro-Republican effect in their polls. Likely due to using a.. unique sample for Dem-Rep-Ind representation.Scott Rasmussen today had an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal basically saying “Obama can’t make the health bill popular again”. (See evidence to contrary, above.)Bottom line, Rasmussen is not remotely an honest broker in politics, but his Repub-slanted, generally over-represented polls are a major factor in the polling averages, and thus influence the media coverage. Particularly with Halperin, Chuck Todd, Mike Allen, and ‘journalists’ of their ilk.