The Obama Boom

Those economists don’t know dick. They are ALL academics who have no basis in reality, and no idea why jobs are continuing to disappear, and why wages are continuing to flatten or decline.Simply put, they’ve been wrong for six years. Last fall, it was “Jobs will return by spring!”It’s spring…

Hmm.. leading economists are often wrong. The majority of them ascribe to ‘Chicago School’ theories of economy. Unfortunately, it seems that it’s very difficult to become a leading economist without rejecting Neokeynesianism.As long as Paul Krugman is concerned about a potential double-dip, I dont think we’re out of the woods yet.

Interesting how many still refuse to give credit where credit is due.Perhaps they’ve forgotten that precipice we teetered on in 2008 and 2009, or maybe, just maybe, they can’t stand to see the black guy get any credit. Particularly after 8 years of BUNGLING by George W. Bush, their pathetic hero.

I agree with everyone on all sides. Krugman certainly has my confidence and at the same time he can be a little overly dark sometimes. Trusting economists seems like a pretty terrible idea after the last year and a half, but at the same time, I still see Help Wanted signs going up everywhere. More importantly, my brother-in-law is a tech head-hunter, and his work load had doubled in the past six weeks. His bonuses are back. His placements are way, way up. In Tennessee, our hardest hit counties are now adding hundreds of jobs thanks to the recovery act, and only about a quarter to a third of those are state jobs–the majority are private.Anecdotal at best I know, but where I think it’s foolish to trust in rosy outlooks right now, I do see a good chunk of progress taking root.

Nothing surprises me when it comes to the great American electorate! They gave W a freakin’ second term!

Dan in DE,Chicago theroy??? GROW UP!PPP,Economist have not been wrong for six years. Real economist were warning of the problems in the economy and the Republican policy way back in 2003, but everyone just kept citing Drudge Report and how the DOW was breaking records. The fake hackies that Fox put on TV don’t count as economists.And these economist do know what they are talking about! They have always contended that this recovery would not be overnight, and it would have been a lot sooner had the Stimulus been much bigger. Just because you were wrong a year ago, are still wrong now, and are always wrong doesn’t change the facts.Bob,What is this deal with Republicans?? They can discount every expert at every turn by somehow turning “an academic” into a negative term.To a Republican, an expertise and education somehow equal liberal bias…. I don’t get it. They just keep doubling down on stupid..

Again anecdotal, but my business depends solely on the disposable income of others. I provide a service that is at times necessary, but is usually just an aesthetic decision.My biz is up, and improving by the week. We are hiring an employee next week. Our third party materials suppliers are reporting gains.Jobs is the big question. Unfortunately, many millions perhaps) of those lost jobs are NEVER coming back. I was a mortgage banker and had a construction company when the shit hit the fan a few years back – I aint holding my breath waiting for them to come back.

I’m not sure that 9.7% unemployment – ah, let’s just say 10% – is reason enough to keep them Democrats in there.I know, I know, Obama/Reid/Pelosi spending (more than any administration before them – COMBINED – and no reason to think THAT won’t continue) isn’t any reason to kick those Democrats out, either.Things are SO much better now. The WSJ says Caterpiller is hiring a few more miners. Pheeew!

I am reminded of that Bloom County strip where the monster in Michael Binkley’s closet persecutes him by producing two economists to argue about the deficit.

Joseph, it’s not true that the Dems have spent more than all other admins combined. For one thing, Obama has simply added the costs of the wars to the budget making the spending transparent where Bush spent nearly the same amount of money but didn’t show it–moreover, they hid that money to keep it out of Americans’ minds.Beyond that, though, looking at straight dollar figures is misleading given inflated dollar values. Yes, a lot of money has been spent, but when you look at things like the return we made on that investment from BofA and the money paid back years earlier by GM, we need to keep in mind that a lot of that money being spent is going to be repaid and some with interest.Spending isn’t just spending when it’s done wisely and with a better future being the result. I know you know that already as pointed out by your saying things are much better. I’m just reiterating.

JoesphS….You reallllly have no clue what you are talking about. No, no, no no no no the Obama/Pelosi/Reid spending is NOT more than any other spending combined.You are confusing the Bush deficit. George W. Bush created more debt THAN ANY OTHER PRESIDENT IN OUR NATION’S HISTORY COMBINED. He then handed off this debt and deficit to the next Administration. Furthermore, the Obama Budget now includes the cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars… something Bush never did. He simply placed those wars off the books and never accounted for them in his budget.

JackDaniel,You are right, many jobs are never coming back… We need to do something to stop the flow of our jobs out of this country and overseas. People keep telling me that we can’t raise corporate taxes or they’ll ship jobs overseas. Well, we’ve been slashing corporate taxes for decades, and the jobs just leave faster. I like what Kucinich said about this subject when running for President, and it was something like “I can’t stop companies from outsourcing jobs, but I can tax the hell out of them if they do.”We also need to invest in new, clean energy industries in American to create new jobs. America is behind in this area, and we need to be the leader. Furthermore, we must educate our masses, have them be studied in Science and Engineering, so that we can once again be the technological leaders of the world.

I’m a self-employed consulting site planner for a major retailer, and I’ve been so busy lately I’m thinking of hiring someone part time. A half a job won’t make a dent in the unemployment rate, but this is a good sign for the economy because this company is aggressively looking to build new stores.Just as bad as the housing market is how retail dried up, but now they’re looking again.

@ JosephS……Enlighten yourself.

@ LukeWow, you’re quite the prick! Aren’t you?I have to assume you know what I’m talking about when I refer to the Chicago School, when you show up running your mouth as you have. So you must be aware that most leading economists like Friedman, Greenspan, and their ilk, are espousing some pretty reactionary ideas. This is the kind of economic philosophy within the Neoclassical framework which, nowadays, is pretty much prerequisite to being taken seriously- and becoming a leading economist. You know, the kind of ideas that justify a more laissez faire approach to regulation.Take a look at the note from Krugman’s colleague appended to this blogpost on the difficulty of getting progressive ideas published in today’s academic environment.

Nicole, good chart on that website. It would be even more telling if there was a line showing where taxes were raised and lowered. Debt pretty much always goes up when taxes are cut, and goes down when taxes are raised, particularly on the wealthy.

@ eljefejeff….Agreed. I’m working on a chart that shows the tax rates for all groups, along with the national debt, for the post WW2 period.

@Dan in DE,I was unaware that there really is a ‘Chicago School theories of economy.’Forgive me if my douche-radar alerts any time someone uses anything resembling “Chicago Style” when referencing anything political.

Luke,What JackDaniel said. Save for Krugman, most non-Keynesian economists have OD-ed on the Chicago School of Economics belief systems. Milton Friedman is their God.I don’t see how anyone can argue that the economy is back when, as you noted, those jobs are never come back. You’re missing something crucial: the unemployment rate (UE) is a shifting lens that looks at only the last 6 months.So in July of 2010 it’s going to look at the months Jan – June. Screw whoever lost their jobs in the 24 months prior to January – they don’t count. The UE rate is and always has been a reflection of the prior 6 months only. As such, it’s utterly worthless. What would be useful is an aggregate of jobs lost vs. jobs gained over a period of time instead of the running joke that the UE rate is.When anyone says those jobs aren’t coming back, it really means that all of those millions of people aren’t going to be employed either.The UE rate really needs to be called the UE Rate for the past 6 months only.

Living in Southern California, I know a lot of people who were working in the construction trades, and are now unemployed. Many of them 45, 50, 55+ years old – all they’ve ever done is rough framing or plumbing, or concrete, etc. What should they go do right now to re-educate and/or train themselves to start a new career from scratch?(PS> Good points Friction)

@LukeNo sweat. I thought it might have been just that- you figured I was a troll trotting out the ‘Obama comes from corrupt Chi-town politics’ meme. Understandable. That’s one obnoxious wingnut argument.

Dan in DE,That is exactly what happened. I am sorry. I fly off the handle because I get so tired of people discounting experts, so I assumed too much out of you guys.See I live in Mississippi, and around here being an expert means you are a liberal propagandist. So take that, and then add the assumed Chi-town meme, and I jumped on ya’ll without knowing what I was talking about.Can you clarify what you meant by this statement : “Unfortunately, it seems that it’s very difficult to become a leading economist without rejecting Neokeynesianism.”

I have just one fact to state for you Luke.One out of every five males is unemployed…not underemployed…UNEMPLOYED.Now tell me again how awesome these economists are? Awesome enough, at least, to keep their own fucking jobs, apparently.

@PPP,Yes! And what have these same economists been doing for 10 years? They were all warning about the policies of Bush and the tired old Reganomics! But Bush’s advisers, and the entire Republican Establishment didn’t want to listen! The experts said this was coming, but conservatives just keep citing the short term profits and record high stock markets.I’m gonna try to be nice, but I just don’t see your point?

My point is, there is no real recovery taking place.Free Trade, outsourcing overseas, and tax cuts all have spelled doom for Middle America. To repeat, this is not a real recovery…except for the wealthy. They, of course, are making a killing on Wall Street.Let’s watch as they share that money with the people who made them rich…their employees.I’m am now officially holding my breath.

@PPPThere is a recovery. Are we teetering on the edge of the precipice as we were in late 2008 or early 2009? No. Of course not.The fact that so many jobs are probably gone for good can be chalked up to the policies promulgated by you conservatives and those you elected. We sure as hell didn’t elect them.As for the tax cuts……well, of course, once again, something that can be laid directly at the feet of the Republicans.And, PPP, I would appreciate it if you would stop trying to poop on every single positive Obama post that Bob puts up. I bet I’m not the only one.

PPP is a realist, in my opinionBut where PPP and I stray in opinion is that, as you alluded to early in your reply nicole, it was a hell of a battle just to pull this thing back from that cliff…to expect an almost literal overnight replacement of millions of lost jobs is unrealistic.The only way I see us creating enough jobs to heal that wound is to truly embrace the green revolution and, as Bob puts it, make it our Manhattan Project. Jobs created almost instantly all across the spectrum of skills and experience (and country). That and rebuilding the crumbling infrastructure of our nation. Both of which though are nutty liberal pie in the sky spending orgasms – talk about not holding our breath…