The United States Supreme Court has decided to review President Obama's deferred action program for undocumented immigrants; a program that was halted last year by the arch conservative 5th Circuit Court of Appeals.
The Supreme Court announced on Tuesday that it will hear United States v. Texas a lawsuit brought by a bloc of states and Republican officials that challenges changes to immigration policy that President Obama announced in 2014. The new policies are expected to benefit approximately 4.9 million undocumented immigrants, the bulk of whom are parents of American citizens or legal permanent residents. Under the programs created or expanded by these policy changes, these immigrants will be permitted to temporarily find work and remain in the country.
If you're looking for a prediction, your guess is as good as mine. There are certain things we can count on, such as Justice Thomas ruling against everything because he hates the world, but I have no idea how the others will vote on this.
In any event, I hope this news serves as a reminder that the Obama administration is not responsible for the recent spat of deportations. Calls to cancel their deportation have come from as high up as the Democratic presidential candidates and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, but the Obama administration's order to defer action against undocumented families has been blocked for a year.
From a purely political standpoint, I believe a court ruling either for or against deferred action would be bad news for Republicans leading into a presidential election and good news for Democrats. Democrats are going to campaign in favor of the program and a reform platform regardless of how the court rules, and Republicans will campaign against it regardless of how the court rules. The worst-case scenario for Republicans would be a ruling in favor of deferred action because their base will expect them to run hard against it.
In the meantime, undocumented families will live a life in limbo with one eye over their shoulders because Republicans sought the most conservative court in the country to advance their case against them. As you may recall, anti-immigration opponents filed their lawsuit in Texas specifically because they knew they would win there.