Following their first meeting yesterday, Dodd, Reid and Baucus released a short statement that didn't say much of anything. But it did include what we can now nickname The Baucus Excuse:
There was strong consensus that crafting a bill that can garner 60 votes is an attainable goal.
Baucus used this excuse during markup, and it's popping up again here. The aggravating aspect of The Excuse is that it's totally disingenuous.
Baucus is assuming that we're ignorant about Senate procedure. The Democrats don't need 60 votes for the bill itself. They need 60 votes to break the inevitable Republican filibuster of the vote. Following that, they only need 50 votes plus Vice President Biden to pass the bill. 50 votes plus Biden. That's all they need. Not 60. 50-plus-Biden.
So if Harry Reid can find his nards (like he did yesterday testifying against the health insurance cartel) and is able to muscle the Democratic caucus to vote against the Republican filibuster, healthcare reform with the public option can pass the Senate with at least 51 votes.
But what Baucus is pushing for is a conservative bill. And repeating this 60 votes line makes it seem crucial that they get conservadems to vote for the final passage of the bill -- conservadems they really don't need for final passage. To get the conservadems, they need a conservative bill. Therefore, the Baucus Excuse is a trick designed to water down healthcare reform.
UPDATE: So this is becoming a long and frustrating post. Reid's office released the following statement yesterday about breaking the Republican filibuster:
“Senator Reid is focused on crafting a health care bill that will overcome a Republican filibuster. Stripping Democratic Senators of their leadership titles is a decision that would be left up to the Caucus, not Senator Reid. In light of this reality it’s unlikely that the Caucus would ever go along with this idea.”
Bull. Shit. This isn't just about getting 60 votes or not, this is about getting a simple majority in the House. No robust public option in the final bill, no healthcare reform because the House progressives won't vote for a bill without the public option. Therefore Reid is more or less obligated to do his job and keep the caucus together. Knock some heads.
Now it's always possible to push for this more Baucus-friendly bill in Senate, then add the public option in conference -- but following that move, Reid would have to overcome a Republican filibuster again on the final bill. One way or another, Reid will have to force the caucus to vote against a filibuster regardless of the content of the bill.
And besides, I think I can speak for most of the netroots when I say that Democrats who vote with Republicans to filibuster healthcare reform do so at their own political peril.