In other news, the Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis and Kansas City says Midwestern farm income declined for the 22nd consecutive quarter during the second quarter of 2019, but it's not clear yet exactly how much it declined. I'll be looking for that number on Monday.
Meanwhile, Walmart is pulling advertisements for violent video games from their stores, but not guns.
Finally, economists surveyed by Reuters now say there's at least a 45 percent chance of a recession within the next two years, up from 35 percent, and that's even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates again.
Despite expectations for further easing, the Aug 6-8 poll gave a median 45% probability of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession in the next two years, up from 35% in the previous poll and the highest since that question was first asked in May 2018.
A closely-watched bond market gauge of U.S. recession risk flashed its biggest warning since March 2007 on Monday, underscoring concerns the spillover from the battle between the world’s two biggest economies over trade will accelerate a global downturn. [...]
Nearly 70% of economists responding to an additional question said the latest developments had brought the next U.S. recession closer.
“Certainly, escalating trade tensions through higher tariffs and restricted access to markets is hurting sentiment, increasing costs, damaging supply chains and weakening corporate profitability,” wrote James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.
Have a good weekend.