Nate Silver in a must-read Q&A with Harper's:
Any other Republican would have been running ten or fifteen points behind at this point.
Far be it from me to disagree with Mr. Silver, but I don't know if I agree on this one. I think Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani would be pretty close at this point mainly because the same fear-mongering (racism, rumors, etc) and lying would have been used against Senator Obama, and I honestly believe that's what's keeping this close. Huckabee would have the evangelical base excited. Romney would be doing well durng this financial crisis. And Giuliani would be scaring the piss out of easily-fooled Republicans. In fact, I'm certain that Giuliani would have already played the Wright card by now.
Anyway, read the rest of the interview. You'll be happy you did. Nate is a smart man.