A new PPP poll shows that Rick Perry is essentially replacing Michele Bachmann in the race for the GOP nomination, which is entirely in line with what I expected to happen.
As TPM reported Tuesday morning, Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R-MN) time as a legitimate contender for the GOP presidential nomination could be up, as a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) shows her the third choice of Republican voters in Iowa, a state essential to her campaign. The new horserace with the full announced GOP field shows Tex. Gov. Rick Perry at the top with 22 percent, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney at 19 percent, Bachmann at 18, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) at 16 percent.
There's no way around it -- Bachmann's popularity has taken a huge hit over the last two months, as shown by the PPP numbers. In June, Bachmann enjoyed a favorable/unfavorable rating of 53 - 16. That statistic is now 47 - 35, still positive, but not particularly high considering these are GOP voters. Perry, on the other hand, has gone from relatively unknown (a 21 - 16 favorability rating in June, majority undecided) to well liked, with a 56 - 24 rating. Paul has increased his favorability rating by 11 points over that time, and Romney has dropped slightly over the last two months.
If makes perfect sense if you think about it.
Rick Perry is a male version of Michele Bachmann. Their rhetoric is interchangeable and they both go to great lengths to appeal to the low information, christian voting base.
And lets face it -- the average Republican would only vote for a woman as a last resort. The party is just as, if not more, misogynistic as it is racist. The Republican-controlled House of Representative spent most of its first 6 months in office concocting uterus legislation and trampling on gender equality.
If Bachmann fails to win Iowa after investing so much time there, her campaign is as good as dead. She cannot carry the southern states over Rick Perry and she cannot carry the northern states over Mitt Romney.
Unless placing all of your eggs in the Iowa basket and ending up with nothing to show for it is considered praise-worthy, I have no idea why Ed Rollins is so highly coveted. The campaign strategies of Michele Bachmann in 2011, and Mike Huckabee in 2007, are nearly identical, and we all know how that worked out for Huckabee.