Paul Noel, a contractor for the US Army at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama, is estimating around 350,000 barrels -- not gallons -- barrels per day. That's more than the Exxon Valdez every damn day.
Here's his math in determining this amount -- he's being very conservative with the calculations.
But here's something to consider when looking at the live video. Noel reminds us that we're only really seeing the riser leak in the video feed. We haven't seen the much larger gusher coming from the top of the blow-out preventer (BOP), which is the tower at the floor of the ocean where the riser had connected to the rig (see also the "top kill" diagram I posted earlier).
So imagine a second gusher -- only bigger.
Noel also writes that the "top kill" could actually end up launch the BOP "into the sky."
Many people have discussed the issue of simply closing the top of the well. This is the famous “Junk Shot” and many other solutions. It all sounds nice. Imagine 3 miles of oil coming at you at high velocity (Several miles per hour) and under this pressure. You slap the valve closed after the mud is out of the well and the ram force may well slam the well casing, BOP and all several miles into the sky. It has happened in the oil industry before. In Libya in the 1950’s it was actually photographed that at least a mile of well pipe and equipment on top was blown into the sky all at one time. At these pressures a well without mud is out of control. At the velocities of the oil coming up this well, there is a fair question if the mud can be successfully reinserted. It might just get blown back out of the well. I have a firm respect that the Oilmen working this have a hard job.
Gulp.
Shit.
(Via reader Chip)