Earlier this week it was revealed that the state of Kansas may miss revenue goals by $1 billion over the next two years under Governor Sam Brownback's economic regime, but it may be even worse than that according to analysis from The Upshot at the New York Times.
Apparently the estimates released by the state may be a bit too optimistic.
Kansas says it expects to collect slightly more personal income tax this year than it did last year, even though, with four months of collections in, they are 11 percent behind last year’s pace.
If the last four months’ performance is similar to the next eight, the state won’t miss its original income tax estimate by $239 million.
It will miss it by $546 million.
The state already estimated that it would fall short of revenue goals in 2016 by $436 million, but if it misses its goal by $546 million in 2015, it stands to reason that estimates for 2016 may also be too optimistic.
Governor Brownback's budget director has said that the state has no plans to reconsider the governor's tax policy which calls for even more tax cuts over the next four years.
If that's the case and they really won't reconsider, Kansas could see education and social services cut by over a billion dollars over the next several years.
What's happening in Kansas is just a preview of what would happen across the country several times over if the Republicans were ever actually allowed to implement Paul Ryan's Path to Poverty which calls for massive tax cuts that would be offset by magic asterisks and the revenue fairy.