What's going on with today's leg of the Obamacare-repeal marathon?
The short answer is no one knows.
Republican senators don't know. Republican representatives don't know. And reporters on the hill are scrambling to find someone who knows something about anything.
As far as we do know, Senate Republicans still intend to vote for the so-called "skinny repeal" bill that repeals the individual mandate, the employer mandate, and the medical device tax included in Obamacare, but they may not have enough votes to pass "skinny repeal."
The problem is they plan to vote for "skinny repeal," but they don't want it to become law. They want assurances that the House will not simply take up their skinny repeal bill and pass it.
Sen Rounds says he's asked for a guarantee house won't pass skinny befor conference or a delay in implementation if it passes
— Liz Goodwin (@lizcgoodwin) July 27, 2017
Sen. Johnson seemed shocked by reports the House could skip conference & pass skinny bill. "Say WHAT?! Come again?!"
— Alice Ollstein (@AliceOllstein) July 27, 2017
GOP whip Cornyn confirms: "the request to go to conference has to originate w the House." So...they're going to gamble on that happening.
— Alice Ollstein (@AliceOllstein) July 27, 2017
Lindsey Graham just cited Mark Meadows as his reasoning that the House won't pass this without a conference.
Who's the Speaker over there?
— Matt Fuller (@MEPFuller) July 27, 2017
Half-dozen GOP Sens @AliceOllstein @Tierney_Megan and I have talked to are banking their entire HC vote on @RepMarkMeadows promise to block
— Cameron Joseph (@cam_joseph) July 27, 2017
At GOP lunch, convo focused on whether they can be assured House won't pass skinny, will conference. Senate doesn't want it to become law.
— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) July 27, 2017
In a word, this is a shitshow.
They could pass "skinny repeal" tonight. They might not. They may not even have 50 votes for it. As of this writing (about 4 p.m. eastern) we don't know.
If they do pass it, the House could also pass it as early as tomorrow. The House could also go to conference and try to negotiate a new bill between both chambers, but that would require Speaker Paul Ryan to cancel the House recess that begins this weekend.
He hasn't done that yet.
Ryan has said he would cancel recess if the Senate passes a repeal bill, but does "skinny repeal" fit that criteria? Will he cancel recess for that? Would he rather just pass "skinny repeal" and leave for recess as planned? We don't know.
Senate Republican seem very eager to go to conference with the House to work on a new bill, but I don't see how that will change anything. There's no magic bill waiting in conference. Going to conference with the nutcases in the House is more likely to exacerbate their differences, not reduce them.
The Senate already failed to pass a "repeal and replace" bill (BCRA) and a "repeal and delay" bill.
If they couldn't pass that on their own, how is going to conference with the House going to make it better?
BREAKING--House members advised on possible repeal votes: "All Members should remain flexible in their travel plans over the next few days"
— Rachael Bade (@rachaelmbade) July 27, 2017
The situation is fluid (read: a disaster) and I actually had to change multiple parts of this story while I was in the middle of writing it.