Britain's largest trade group, the Food and Drink Federation, which represents over 7,000 business, recently warned that a hard, no-deal brexit will lead to food shortages that could last for months, but you don't have to take the word of corporations that may or may not have your best interests in mind.
According to the British government, food shortages will be just the beginning. The government also believes a hard brexit will lead to shortages of fuel and medical supplies while cross-channel transportation is gridlocked for months.
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain will face shortages of fuel, food and medicine if it leaves the European Union without a transition deal, according to leaked official documents reported by the Sunday Times whose interpretation was immediately contested by ministers. [...]
The Times said up to 85% of lorries using the main Channel crossings may not be ready for French customs, meaning disruption at ports would potentially last up to three months before the flow of traffic improved.
The government also believes a hard border between the British province of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, will be likely as plans to avoid widespread checks will prove unsustainable, the Times said.
Members of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's administration did not dispute the authenticity of these documents that lay out the government's expectations for a hard brexit, but they did say none of this is going to happen because things are somehow different now.
“It is the case, as everyone knows, that if we do have a no-deal exit there will inevitably be some disruption, some bumps in the road. That’s why we want a deal,” [Brexit minister Michael Gove] told reporters.
“But it is also the case that the UK government is far more prepared now than it was in the past, and it’s also important for people to recognise that what’s being described in these documents... is emphatically a worst-case scenario,” Gove added.
Johnson was officially sworn in as prime minister by Queen Elizabeth less than one month ago. "The past" is barely past.
It is true that Johnson's administration is writing checks to prepare for a hard brexit, but that doesn't mean they can violate the laws of physics.
The more members of Johnson's government say everything is going to be fine, the more I worry it won't be. These are not people who base their politics in empirical reality. If they were, we wouldn't even be having this discussion because there would be no brexit.
If Boris Johnson follows through on his pledge to leave the European Union no matter what, Britain is not going to have a merry Christmas.