You've probably heard the conventional wisdom that if President Obama wins, it'll be in spite of the economy, and if Romney wins, it'll be because of the economy and in spite of his campaign.
Ezra Klein rightfully notes the fact that the economy isn't bad news for the president.
This year, the major economic indicators are headed in the right direction, albeit slowly. We’ve been adding jobs, though not enough. We’ve been growing, though not particularly fast. We’ve seen the unemployment rate drop, though partially because workers are leaving the labor force. All in all, it’s not an impressive record. But it’s weak growth, not a new recession. And the political valence of that weak growth is unusually hard to discern, as voters continue to place more blame for our current economic troubles on George W. Bush than on Barack Obama.
Recently, Dylan Matthews surveyed six other forecasting models. Five of those models include economic data. Most, though not all, are predicting an Obama win.
And yesterday, the Dow closed at its highest level since 2007.
Lesson? Conventional wisdom is made by people like Mark Halperin and Charlie Cook. They're both wrong most of the time.