Here's an illustration of Romney's retreating bounce via Nate Silver, in convenient chart and map forms:
If the president can score with a solid debate tonight, those charts will continue to move in a favorable direction. Meanwhile, Electoral-Vote.com's map is moving in a similar direction -- but it puts Missouri, North Carolina, Florida and Crazy Arizona in the "Barely Republican" category. Arizona!
Another thing to bear in mind:
Early voting has started in over 40 states and 7% of the voters have already cast their ballots. These early votes have broken strongly for President Obama, 59% to 31%, according to a new Ipsos poll.
In Ohio, Obama leads with 76 percent of the vote and 19 percent of all registered voters having already voted.