It seems highly unlikely that the Trump regime and the European Union (EU) will sign a significant, sweeping trade deal before the November election, but that doesn't necessarily mean they won't agree to a limited deal of some description.
In fact, that's exactly what European officials are hoping for.
The way they see it, they just need to give Trump something he can tweet so he'll shut up and go away.
Tomas Baert, head of trade and agriculture for the EU’s delegation in Washington, said on Friday that EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan will travel to Washington monthly to try to work out a limited deal “that is tweetable.” Such a deal would allow Trump “to say that we went from the worst trade relationship to the best relationship,” Baert said.
That doesn’t mean, however, that Europe will be consuming “chlorinated chicken,” he said, or buying genetically modified agricultural products, referring to U.S. practices shunned in Europe.
A limited deal that does not fundamentally alter our relationship or necessarily even lead to significantly higher exports is exactly what we got in "phase one" of Trump's "biggest and greatest deal ever" with China and I can't see any reason to expect anything different in this case. My expectations are actually lower.
It's even less likely that Trump will roll back any of his tariffs on European goods because, unlike his trade war with China, Trump actually did receive the green light from the World Trade Organization (WTO) to impose tariffs in a subsidy dispute that dates back to the Bush administration.
Trump is going to cling to the WTO's ruling until he's out of office because he feels personally validated by it and that means a low-key trade war with Europe will likely be the status quo until he's gone.