The American manufacturing sector is already in recession and the much larger and significant services sector may not be far behind it if the latest reading of employment in services is any indication.
IHS Markit’s latest survey found that employment in services for the month of September contracted for the first time since 2010 and, like the manufacturing sector, is now below a level that indicates growth.
A gauge of employment in U.S. service industries swung into contraction in September for the first time since 2010, adding to unease heading into Friday’s jobs report.
IHS Markit’s non-manufacturing employment measure fell 1.8 points to 48.6, dropping below the 50 level that divides expansion and contraction and posting the steepest two-month drop in data since 2009. The main services index edged up 0.2 point to 50.9, according to the survey released Thursday.
An official report on employment for the month of September will be released by the Labor Department tomorrow morning and while it may not be a pretty report, I expect it won't be quite as bad as this suggests.
With that said, every report released by the Trump regime is eventually revised downward so even if tomorrow's report is slightly better than expected, that doesn't necessarily mean things actually are better than expected.
With Trump imposing tariffs on European goods later this month followed by more tariffs on Chinese goods in December, there doesn't appear to be anything short of a holiday shopping miracle that could reverse the economic trend we're on.
For some parts of the economy, Trump has already tariffed us into recession.