The Trump regime claims China will increase imports of American goods and services by a fantastical $200 billion over the next two years.
That doesn't pass laugh test for me but, even if we generously accept that it will actually happen, it won't make up for the cost of Trump's trade war according to economists.
Because the bulk of Trump's tariffs will remain on the books under "phase one" of his "greatest and biggest deal ever," the cost to the American economy will total over $300 billion by the end of next year.
Economists who have calculated the impact of U.S. tariffs, most of which will remain in place, and China’s retaliatory measures have put the economic losses -- including the impact of the resulting uncertainty -- at a cost in lost output ranging from 0.3% to 0.7% of real gross domestic product this year alone. [...]
While a few tenths of a percentage point may not seem like much, it’s consequential in the world’s biggest economy. In 2019 dollar terms, Bloomberg Economics estimates the cost in lost U.S. GDP has reached $134 billion to date and will rise to a total of $316 billion by the end of 2020.
American consumers and families will also continue to pay a high price for Trump's tariffs even if his magnificent deal is signed.
A study by researchers at the New York Fed and Princeton and Columbia universities estimated the cost to consumers of the bulk of tariffs that will remain in place, despite the latest deal, at $831 per household per year -- or an annual cost of more than $106 billion for the U.S. economy as a whole.
That alone would more than wipe out the gains from the Chinese buying surge Trump’s team has negotiated.
So, we'll see a net loss even if Trump's wildest fever dreams come true. And we haven't even included his tariffs on European goods here.
I used to wonder how you can go bankrupt running a casino, but I don't anymore.